We've crunched the numbers and here is what the Greater Conejo Valley Real estate market looks like on a year-to-date basis, compared to 2016:
In terms of properties sold, we're down about 1.1% overall with sales limited by lack of inventory. Homes under $600K are almost identical year over year, but $600K-$1.1M homes were up 8.7%, due to additional available inventory. Above $1.1M homes were up significantly, increasing by 15.9%, based soley on a flood of new inventory in this price range.
For Average Days on Market, we saw an overall improvement of 8% resulting from strong demand and low inventory. Under $600K homes again matched the overall 8% increase YTD over 2016, but $600K-$1.1M homes experienced a 24% improvement resulting from good buyer demand and stabilized price appreciation. Over $1.1M homes improved by 20%, resulting from a similarly good buyer demand and stabilized price appreciation.
Overall and $0-$600K home prices climbed 5.3% as a result of typical market appreciation in our region. $600K-$1.1M properties increased very little, showing evidence of a slow down in home value appreciation. Prices will weaken further if interest rates increase (as anticipated) making housing less affordable. Above $1.1M also saw a very minor uptick in price, another sign of market resistance to higher prices. Prices should weaken going into the end end of the year and 1st quarter of 2018 in this price range. How much depends on whether mortgage rates continue to increase making these homes less affordable. It is no longer a strong sellers market as buyers are gaining an advantage due to increasing inventory.
Overall, we have a bifurcated market, with very high demand for affordable houses under $600K and homes priced above $600K. As more millennials become home buyers, lower priced entry level inventory will continue to be the hottest segment of the market and continue to appreciate. Factors that will impact this market are rising interest rates and changes in inventory levels. More inventory and higher rates will drive values down and lower inventory, but lower rates will push prices even higher, though we expect a normalization of appreciation of 2-4% per year in this price range for 2018.
$600K plus properties will continue to face upward price appreciation resistance as only about 31% of buyers can afford to buy a median priced home of $575,000.
Though appreciation is slowing and buyers have become much more patient, activity is good and properly priced houses continue to sell quickly with multiple offers.
The last 3 months of 2016 was very active with 1029 homes closing or opening escrow. We expect the last 3 months of 2017 to be even more active based on early September activity.
There is still time to get you house on the market before rates go up or market conditions change. Click HERE or call 805-379-3300 for a free home valuation and to learn more about savings thousands when selling your home without giving up full service, expertise or results.